Chasers Admins SVLMedia Reel
Weather
Today's
Weather
Supporter's
Page
Log In |
Register
    Back >
    Username
    Password
    Register
    Reset Password
    Important: A link will be sent to your registered email address to reset your password. You must open this link in the same browser you send the password reset request in.
    < Back
Store Support
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AR...WESTERN MS...AND NORTHERN LA...

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...

SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through early Sunday from Louisiana/Arkansas eastward to north Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. The severe weather threat will cover the full spectrum from isolated strong tornadoes to very large hail and damaging winds.

AL/FL/GA/SC This Afternoon... A fast moving and intense squall line is moving rapidly eastward across parts of the FL Panhandle, extreme southeast AL, and southwest GA. This line will progress across GA and into SC later today. Transient rotating updrafts have been occurring along the line this morning, producing locally damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. This threat will persist as activity moves eastward due to strong southerly low level winds just ahead of the storms maintaining enhanced low level shear and helicity values. Some breaks in the clouds and modest afternoon heating may further destabilize the area and maintain the Enhanced risk of severe storms.

AR/LA/MS This Afternoon and Evening... Water vapor loop shows a lead shortwave trough moving eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Subsidence behind this system will help to suppress deep convection over the ArkLaTex region for a few more hours. However, another shortwave trough over NM and West TX will lead to increasing lift and cooling aloft by mid/late afternoon. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop over southeast OK and northeast TX around peak heating and track eastward across parts of AR/LA and into MS this evening. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates, cold mid level temperatures, and favorable deep layer shear values to promote a widespread risk of severe hail. CAM solutions also indicate discrete supercells will be favored, further increasing the risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded portions of this area to MDT risk for the hail threat.

LA/MS/AL/GA This Evening and Tonight... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the evolution of the remnant outflow boundary from this morning's convection and the re-development of thunderstorms tonight over this area. Forecast soundings indicate that the combination of sufficient instability, ample low level moisture, and significant low level vertical shear will promote a tornado risk in any storms that form. A few models suggest another active round of severe storms affecting areas similar to this mornings storms. Therefore will maintain the Enhanced Risk area with minimal changes.

..Hart/Leitman.. 01/21/2017
SVL Logo Media Disclaimer:
ALL Media/Videos/Photos/Livestream is in no way allowed to be used in anyway without prior authorization by SVL Media or by authorization of the specific chaser/SVL member as well. All Inquiries should be directed to (308) 455-8300 or via the SVL Media link above.

Copyright 2016-2017 StormViewLIVE™ All rights reserved
SVLMedia Logo