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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS...

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO IOWA...

SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may produce isolated severe hail across portions of northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska into Iowa and northern Missouri this evening and overnight.

Discussion...

Previous forecast appears on track, and only minor adjustments have been made. Elevated thunderstorms should develop from north central to northeast KS, moving into southeast NE and southern IA this evening where a progressive shortwave trough and strengthening low-level jet will augment isentropic ascent and destabilization north of a warm front currently located across southern KS. While updrafts will be elevated, effective shear will be sufficient for a few storms to develop mid-level rotation which, in addition to steep mid-level lapse rates and 500 J/kg MUCAPE, will promote a modest threat for mainly large hail.

..Dial.. 02/23/2017
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