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641
ACUS01 KWNS 270040
SWODY1
SPC AC 270039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2019

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST
TX INTO SOUTHERN NM...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
primarily across far west Texas.

...Far West TX...

Thunderstorms have been slow to develop across the MRGL Risk region
due partly to slower moisture return across far west TX. Mid 40s
surface dew points are now spreading into the ELP region and
adjacent southern NM. Extensive high clouds within the southern
Rockies ridge has likely delayed deep convection as well. Even so,
isolated storms are now beginning to mature over Hudspeth County
south into northern Mexico. This activity should spread slowly east
over the next few hours. 00z sounding from EPZ depicts steep lapse
rates and shear supportive of supercell development. Introducing mid
40s surface dew points into EPZ sounding would yield SBCAPE on the
order of 1200 J/kg and this should be adequate for hail and gusty
winds with the most robust storms this evening.

..Darrow.. 03/27/2019

$$
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